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The average price tag for the most popular level of insurance sold in the Affordable Care Act’s federal marketplaces is dropping slightly, the first time the rates have stopped going up since the health plans were created a half-dozen years ago. In the 39 states that rely on HealthCare.gov, the monthly premium is dipping by 1.5 percent for 2019 in a tier of coverage that forms the basis for the ACA’s federal insurance subsidies, according to federal figures released Tuesday. (Goldstein, 10/11)

“Though the average decrease is small, it is a dramatic and very positive change from the double-digit increases experienced over the past two years,” said Seema Verma, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which runs the online marketplace serving 39 states. From 2017 to 2018, the benchmark rose 37 percent, officials said, and in the prior year it rose 25 percent. (Pear, 10/11)

Kaiser Health News: Obamacare Premiums Dip For First Time. Some Call It A Correction.

The analysis by federal officials looked at the price of the second-lowest silver plan for a 27-year-old nonsmoker on the marketplaces. Those silver plans are used by the ACA to set subsidies. Open enrollment for 2019 runs from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15. (Galewitz and Appleby, 10/11)

Tennessee will see the sharpest premium decline, as average monthly premiums for silver plans fell more than 26% from more than $600 last year to $449. North Dakota had the greatest increase, with average premiums rising more than 20% from $312 per month to $375. Sixteen of the 39 states using the federal exchange will see declines, two states will have no change, and the majority of the remaining states will face marginal, single-digit increases. (Luthi, 10/11)

The new dynamic could muddle both parties’ political messages. The pattern of more moderate rate increases could hold in future years if the markets remain stable, but it’s uncertain how the spread of plans that don’t comply with the ACA, and the legal challenges to the health law itself, will affect insurer pricing in years to come. The data also confirm that insurers are expanding their presence in the ACA markets, after previous industry pullbacks. (Armour and Wilde Mathews, 10/11)

“The rhetoric on the exchanges has not matched the facts,” Verma said, and despite predictions that the insurance market would destabilize, the opposite has happened. “We were told if the individual mandate were repealed, premiums would skyrocket. We were told if we shifted focus away from navigators, no one would sign up,” Verma said. (Weixel, 10/11)

Consumers who buy health insurance on Illinois’ Obamacare exchange for next year will see slightly lower prices, on average, for the most popular plans — but it’s unclear whether the decline in premiums will be enough to keep people buying them. Starting next year, consumers no longer will face penalties for not buying insurance. They also will have new options, including the ability to use short-term plans, purchased outside the exchange, for a longer period of time. Short-term plans are often cheaper than exchange plans though they may not offer as much coverage. (Schencker, 10/11)

Kaiser Health News: Podcast: KHN’s ‘What The Health?’ Falling Premiums And Rising Political Tensions

The Trump administration announced that, for the first time, the average premium for a key plan sold on the federal health law’s insurance marketplaces will fall slightly next year. Federal officials said that changes they have made helped facilitate the reduction, but others argue that it was because more plans are moving back into those federal exchanges and making money. (10/11)