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Morning Briefing

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Thursday, Feb 6 2020

Full Issue

Humanity's Endless War Against Epidemics: If Coronavirus Is Beaten, There's Always Another Pathogen Waiting In The Wings

WHO has said 鈥渆pidemics in the 21st century are spreading faster and farther than ever" and there's always another one waiting to strike. If coronavirus is contained, what will the next pandemic look like? Meanwhile, scientists try to answer key questions about the outbreak, such as: why we aren't seeing more sick kids, how the virus spreads, when it will peak, what the best way to prevent transmission is, and more.

In the evolutionary arms race between humanity and the microbes, the bugs are making a comeback. Yes, we鈥檝e conquered diseases such as smallpox and polio, and deaths from communicable diseases have been falling worldwide. But since 1970, more than 1,500 new pathogens have been discovered, according to the World Health Organization, and 鈥渆pidemics in the 21st century are spreading faster and farther than ever. Outbreaks that were previously localized can now become global very rapidly.鈥 (Bremner, Langreth, and Paton, 2/6)

The new strain of coronavirus that has killed hundreds of people in China and caused a travel lockdown of some 56 million people has been classified as a "zoonosis" because of the way it spreads from animals to humans. Science writer David Quammen says the virus, which the World Health Organization last week declared a global health emergency, is just the latest example of how pathogens that start in animals are migrating to humans with increasing frequency 鈥 and with deadly consequences. (Davies, 2/5)

The new coronavirus has infected more than 28,000 people, and at least 563 have died. But relatively few children appear to have developed severe symptoms so far, according to the available data. 鈥淭he median age of patients is between 49 and 56 years,鈥 according to a report published on Wednesday in JAMA. 鈥淐ases in children have been rare.鈥 So why aren鈥檛 more children getting sick? (Mandavilli, 2/5)

Pregnant women infected with the new coronavirus may be able to pass it to their unborn children, doctors at the Wuhan Children Hospital said on Wednesday, according to state broadcaster CCTV. The doctors said it was possible after an infected coronavirus patient gave birth to a baby on Feb. 2. The newborn was given a test 30 hours later and confirmed to have the virus, the doctors said. (2/5)

The coronavirus has infected at least 27,000 people worldwide, and officials in China now say the youngest person with the illness is a newborn baby who was infected just 30 hours after being born.聽The聽state-run news site XinhuaNet聽says the infant was born on February 2 at a hospital in Wuhan, China 鈥 the city where the coronavirus outbreak originated. The baby's mother also tested positive for the virus before she gave birth, according to Union Hospital, affiliated with Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. (O'Kane, 2/5)

The coronavirus outbreak is on track to peak in early March, according to a quantitative analysis by Hong Kong-based investment firm Gavekal Research Ltd. Fund manager Didier Darcet, who has a background in mathematical modeling for financial markets, suggested investors focus on the rate of acceleration of the spread of the virus, in a note Wednesday. The number of new infections is now accelerating at a lower rate than last week, he said. (Mullen, 2/5)

Public health officials attempting to contain the new coronavirus are trying to figure out how easily it spreads. One key question is whether people who are infected but show no symptoms can infect other people. "If you have a lot of people who [have mild disease or are] asymptomatic and not seeking medical care for respiratory illness but are still contagious, you're going to have a very difficult time," says Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. (Harris, 2/5)

Roughly 50 million people are under quarantine in China. Thousands of travelers are being screened at airports every day. Armies of disease detectives are knocking on doors around the world in hopes of halting the new coronavirus in its tracks. Despite all the colossal efforts to contain the virus, scientists are quietly preparing for a grim 鈥 and increasingly likely 鈥 outcome: A full-blown global pandemic. (Baumgaertner, 2/5)

Chinese officials are buying up medical masks in the virus-wracked country from factories that typically supply hospitals around the world, forcing manufacturers to boost output globally and hospitals to ration supplies. Masks are essential protective gear for medical workers treating patients potentially infected with the newly identified coronavirus, which has spread across China and beyond. China is one of the world鈥檚 top producers of medical masks and other gear. Now officials there are directing much of that supply to the front lines of the outbreak, leaving customers in the U.S. and other countries to look elsewhere for masks as global supplies tighten. (Hufford and Evans, 2/6)

Drugstores have reported skyrocketing demand, and several of Amazon鈥檚 top sellers are indefinitely out of stock. Shortages of surgical face masks are a visible sign that the novel coronavirus from China has reached the United States. But health experts warn that stocking up on the disposable masks could do more harm than good by limiting their availability to doctors and nurses. If the coronavirus outbreak should cause a run on anything, they say, it should be soap and water instead. (Baumgaertner, 2/5)

Forget face masks and rubber gloves. The best way to avoid the coronavirus is frequent hand washing, according to a medical adviser to the world鈥檚 airlines. The virus can鈥檛 survive long on seats or armrests, so physical contact with another person carries the greatest risk of infection on a flight, said David Powell, a physician and medical adviser to the International Air Transport Association. Masks and gloves do a better job of spreading bugs than stopping them, he said. (Park, 2/5)

A state-run Chinese research institute has applied for a patent on the use of Gilead Sciences' experimental U.S. antiviral drug, which scientists think could provide treatment for the coronavirus that has killed hundreds and infected thousands. The Wuhan Institute of Virology of the China Academy of Sciences, based in the city where the outbreak is believed to have originated, said in a statement on Tuesday it applied to patent the use of Remdesivir, an antiviral drug developed by Gilead, to treat the virus. (2/5)

Granting its own scientists a patent might give the Chinese government leverage in negotiations over paying for the drug. But it also might fuel complaints Beijing abuses its regulatory system to pressure foreign companies to hand over valuable technology. On Thursday, the official Xinhua News Agency said clinical trials of the drug, remdesivir, were due to start. (2/6)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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