�Թϲ�����

Even without a history-making health care remake to deliver "Medicare-for-all," government at all levels will be paying nearly half the nation's health care tab in less than 10 years, according to a federal report released Wednesday. The government growth is driven by traditional Medicare, which is experiencing a surge in enrollment as aging baby boomers shift out of private coverage, according to the analysis from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (Alonso-Zaldivar, 2/20)

Aging baby boomers will consume an ever-larger share of the nation’s health-care spending over the coming decade, regardless of the success of Democrats running for president with ambitious plans to broaden Medicare. The number of people covered through Medicare — and spending on the federal insurance program for older and disabled Americans — is expected to grow more rapidly than private insurance or Medicaid, eating up a larger chunk of health spending, according to a yearly forecast of U.S. health-care expenditures released Wednesday. (Goldstein, 2/21)

The report from actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is likely to add to the pressures making health care a significant issue in the 2020 election. Health care’s share of the economy is projected to climb to 19.4% by 2027 from 17.9% in 2017, assuming no legislative changes to the U.S. health system. The faster rate of growth would follow a slower tempo seen in 2017, when increases decelerated to a pace not seen since just after the 2007-09 recession. “While Medicare spending is expected to accelerate the fastest among payers and contribute to the increase, growth in health prices and disposable personal income are also significant contributors,” said Andrea Sisko, an economist at CMS and lead author of the study published in the journal Health Affairs. (Armour, 2/20)

By 2027, nearly 90 percent of Americans are projected to be insured under Medicare, Medicaid or private insurance — a stable rate at pace with population growth but a slight dip from the 90.9 percent of insured Americans today. But spending on Medicare is expected to grow at a faster rate than Medicaid or private insurance, according to the study, offering a clue about why overall spending is likely to increase. (Santhanam, 2/20)

These spending trends could boost public support for policy proposals to regulate prices and boost competition for healthcare services and drugs. For instance, Democratic proposals for Medicare-for-all and public plan options would pay providers at Medicare prices, which generally are significantly lower than what private insurers pay. "The cost trend will make it easier to fund a Medicare-for-all or public option plan, because the price differential between what Medicare and the private sector pay allows you to save money by paying Medicare rates," said Gerald Anderson, a health policy professor at Johns Hopkins University. (Meyer, 2/20)

Spending on prescription drugs is expected to increase at an accelerating rate over the next 10 years, according to government estimates released Wednesday — ramping up to as much as 6.1 percent growth by 2020. The Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services annually forecasts how much money patients, insurance companies, and the government will spend on health care in the coming decade — so-called national health expenditures. Broadly, they predict total health spending in the U.S. will increase by an annual average of 5.5 percent until 2027. (Swetlitz, 2/20)

U.S. households spent $980 billion on health care in 2017, which works out to more than $3,200 per person, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ annual report on health spending. While that may have been a bitter a pill to swallow, you might be as surprised as I was to learn that consumers directly paid for only a third of the nation’s $2.9 trillion personal health care costs. (Moeller, 2/20)

“Medicare for all” is popular, and not just among Democrats. Most Republicans favor giving people under 65 at least the choice to buy into Medicare. But when people hear arguments against it, their support plummets. It turns out that most people don’t really know what Medicare for all means. Even asking three policy experts might yield three different answers. By our count, there are at least 10 major proposals to expand Medicare or Medicaid. (Frakt and Carroll, 2/21)