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A bill to dismantle the Affordable Care Act that narrowly passed the House this month would leave 14 million more people uninsured next year than under President Barack Obama’s health law — and 23 million more in 2026, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday. Some of the nation’s sickest would pay much more for health care. (Pear, 5/24)

The Congressional Budget Office report, issued Wednesday, also found that average premiums would fall compared with President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, a chief goal of many Republicans. But that would be partly because policies would typically provide fewer benefits and sicker people would be priced out, it concluded. (Fram and Alonso-Zaldivar, 5/25)

The legislation would reduce the federal budget deficit by $119 billion over 10 years. That’s $32 billion less than the estimated savings for the previous version of the bill. (Pugh and Clark, 5/24)

The largest savings would come from cutting Medicaid and reducing tax credits for middle-income insurance buyers. (Park and Quealy, 5/24)

The House bill would be particularly harmful to older, sicker residents of states that waive key consumer protections in the current law, including the ban on insurers charging sick consumers more. The budget office estimates that about one-sixth of the U.S. population live in states that would seek such waivers, which would be allowed under the House bill. “Over time, it would become more difficult for less healthy people (including people with preexisting medical conditions) in those states to purchase insurance,” the report notes. (Levey, 5/24)

The effects of the bill would be immediate. In 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured if the bill became law. Premiums would rise by an average of about 20 percent in 2018, CBO said. However, average premiums starting in 2020 would partially depend on changes states might seek to Obamacare insurance requirements. (Young and Raman, 4/24)

The report incorporates the changes to the bill made just before it narrowly passed the House on May 4. Those changes included an amendment offered by Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.) that would let states waive some key provisions of the health law, including requirements to cover “essential health benefits” and to offer insurance to people with preexisting conditions at no extra cost. (Rovner, 5/24)

The waivers states are allowed to take would let insurers offer plans that don’t cover some benefits, such as maternity care. That would mean people would have to pay for those treatments on their own, or buy separate insurance coverage for them. An add-on policy that covers maternity care could cost $1,000 a month or more, CBO said -- raising both up-front and out-of-pocket costs for women. (Edney, Tracer and Litvan, 5/24)

Congressional analysts concluded that one change to the House bill aimed at lowering premiums, by allowing states to opt out of some current insurance requirements, would encourage some employers to maintain coverage for their workers and get younger, healthier people to buy plans on their own. But those gains would be largely offset by consumers with preexisting conditions, who would face higher premiums than they do now. “Their premiums would continue to increase rapidly,” the report found. (Eilperin and Snell, 5/24)

The total is slightly less than the CBO’s accounting of a previous version of the bill. (Sullivan, 5/24)

It’s a slightly better number than the GOP’s first plan that failed in March. Under that plan, the CBO found 24 million or more would have lost insurance. That figure stirred protests and played a major role in tanking support for the plan. (Hart, 5/24)

The bill will now move on to the Senate, and should it pass that chamber, it will not look like this current AHCA version. (Kurtzleben, 5/24)