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Morning Briefing

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Monday, May 4 2020

Full Issue

Experts Try To Predict Unpredictable Future: 'October 2020 Won鈥檛 Look Nothing Like October 2019'

The world has changed because of the coronavirus, but what does that mean for the months and years to come? Will there be a massive wave of new cases in the fall or a series of small outbreaks? Will a vaccine change the course of the pandemic?

As epidemiologists attempt to scope out what Covid-19 has in store for the U.S. this summer and beyond, they see several potential futures, differing by how often and how severely the no-longer-new coronavirus continues to wallop humankind. But while these scenarios diverge on key details 鈥斅爃ow much transmission will decrease over the summer, for instance, and how many people have already been infected (and possibly acquired immunity) 鈥 they almost unanimously foresee a world that, even when the current outbreak temporarily abates, looks and feels nothing like the world of just three months ago. (Begley, 5/1)

Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned on Sunday that if states allow schools, workplaces and other public areas to 鈥渓et their guard down," an explosion of new coronavirus cases could bubble up into a 鈥渘ew epidemic鈥 or 鈥渓arge outbreak.鈥 鈥淭he concerning thing here is that we鈥檙e looking at the prospect that this may be a persistent spread,鈥 Gottlieb said on CBS鈥檚 鈥淔ace the Nation.鈥 (Cammarata, 5/3)

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed America over the past seven weeks, changing everything from work life and school life to travel plans. But in that short time, it's become clear that the virus's impact has changed as well. After an initial period of serious concern, Americans have settled into their new coronavirus-driven reality, according to surveys from Dynata, the world's largest first-party survey insights company. And they seem to be looking ahead to a long fight. (Chinni, 5/3)

The World Health Organization extended its declaration of a global health emergency on Friday amid increasing criticism from the Trump Administration about its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. The move comes exactly three months after the organization鈥檚 original decision to announce a 鈥減ublic health emergency of international concern鈥 on Jan. 30. At the time, only 98 of the nearly 10,000 confirmed cases had occurred outside China鈥檚 borders. But the pandemic continues to grow. More than 3.2 million people around the world are known to have been infected, and nearly a quarter million have died, according to official counts. (Sheikh, 5/1)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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