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About 13 million people will lose health insurance in the next 10 years if the House-passed Affordable Care Act replacement plan is enacted, according to a new report out Tuesday from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' office of the actuary. The estimate, while hardly rosy, is still about 10 million fewer people than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated would lose coverage under the American Health Care Act (AHCA), now being considered by the Senate. (O'Donnell, 6/13)

The coverage estimate is well below the 23 million more uninsured that the CBO has projected under the American Health Care Act. The congressional scorekeeper additionally estimated that the American Health Care Act would reduce spending by only $119 billion over a decade. The disparity is a result of differing assumptions about whether cost-saving measures in the House bill will work. The CMS actuary and CBO have disagreed in the past on the budgetary effects of legislation, including surrounding the enactment of Obamacare. The new actuary's analysis does not estimate the effects of taxes repealed. (Demko, 6/13)

The CMS actuary's report projected that the AHCA, narrowly passed by House Republicans last month with no Democratic votes, would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $383.2 billion from 2017 through 2026. The spending reductions would stem mainly from repealing the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion to low-income adults. That's far less than the $834 billion in Medicaid cuts projected by the CBO. (Meyer, 6/13)

The actuary noted, however, that allowing states to waive out of some ObamaCare regulations could lead to a "deteriorating or possibly failing individual market," which is similar to a conclusion made in the CBO report. "If such actions were implemented, we would expect that the individual market in these areas would destabilize such that premiums for comprehensive coverage for a significant proportion of the population would become unaffordable and the coverage would cease to be offered," the actuary wrote. (Hellmann, 6/13)

CMS also said in its analysis that the average gross premiums in the individual insurance market would be roughly 13 percent lower by 2026 under the House-passed bill than under current law. But that estimate may provide little comfort for consumers who are wondering what would happen to their insurance costs under the GOP bill. The average net premiums, which are what’s left after federal and state subsidies weighted, would be roughly 5 percent higher than under the current law. (Young, 6/13)

Tennessee stands to lose more than 28,000 jobs by 2026 under the GOP's health care reform bill, which would reduce the health care workforce in the state and nationally, per a new study. In the short term, the tax repeal under the American Health Care Act would add 864,000 jobs nationally, but the gains would be stripped away in subsequent years as changes to coverage and cuts to Medicaid funding took effect, according to a study from The Commonwealth Fund and the George Washington University Milken Institute of Public Health. (Fletcher, 6/13)